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02 January 2009 @ 11:23 pm
Finally letting loose some of the thoughts that have been piling up  
I started to write this as a reply to quinquin's post, but realized that I probably had enough to say to make my own.

On the subject of Chie becoming Hoshigumi's next top star.

We've compared Chie to other nibante, and to other members of her class, and to other past tops. But the reason I've always thought "she's too young" is because of the other *current* tops.

The "youngest" current top stars (Tani and Yuu, 1995) are four school years senior to Chie (1999). Mizu debuted in 1993, Asako in 1992, Touko in 1991. Going backwards from there, I can think of at least one otokoyaku top star from each hatsubutai year until I get to where I no longer have top stars' names and debut years memorized.

But 1994 has been skipped, and I see people from that class (i.e. Yumiko and Kiriyan) as being "next in line" -- or rather, they ought to be next in line.

Yumiko and Kiriyan... and Yuuhi. They deserve it. Because they're senior. Because they've come so far and experienced so much and they're ready. And sure, maybe Chie's ready too, but others have been ready longer, and I think what Chie deserves is to be *nibante* longer and get all those interesting and varied nibante roles.

The longer we wait the more ideas seem to be thrown around, and suddenly I'm hearing people say "Ranju Tomu". Naturally I've been ruling out Sorasiennes for almost all things under the completely biased assumption that "Soragumi is perfect right now" and needs not to be touched or tampered with in any way. Well, that's my automatic response, and then when pressed further I'll concede that it's naive to think my troupe won't be affected in some way. They all will, I'm sure of that.

Anyway, if we're skipping '94 and looking at '96 for eligible otokoyaku then clearly Tomu is first in line...

I just, you know, don't like to consider the possibility because she'd be leaving my troupe. :( Off to Hoshigumi to take Touko's place as my favorite top star, sure, but still. :(

My projection is still Kiriyan to Hoshigumi and Yuuhi back to Tsukigumi, but I'm not claiming much rationale other than "she looks like she'd fit in" or "that's where I want her to be". Although honestly, after how much I've liked Yuu and Yuuhi together in the past two Grand Theater shows, I almost *don't* want her to move back.

People have also been saying "Asako will retire or move to Senka". I see logic in this, not because Tom looks like she wants to step down, but rather because Asako seems to prefer otokoyaku-ing over all. On the other hand, if we drew a parallel between "Kazu Ryouka appears unhappy and cold to her fans --> Kazu retires" and "Sena Jun appears unhappy and cold to her fans"...

*shrug* Who knows. I just want to see Tsukigumi really shaken up. The Moon Troupe Jenga tower lost Yuuhi and Mihoko (and Taki-san and Nene and Remi) -- sliding in Shizuku hardly gave them new support -- will they get shiny new pieces or do they have to crumble before they get completely rebuilt?

(Fresh off the keys and I already hate my metaphor, ugh. But while I'm on the subject, I'll get this out now in case I forget later -- as to the question of "Most confusing action by Hankyuu in 2008"? The promotion of Hazakura Shizuku. I'm sorry, I see nothing in her; even setting aside my hopes and dreams riding on Alice-chan, it makes me burn to see so many talented musumeyaku losing out to that girl.)

...I think I'm almost done. Despite "dinner show" being one of our indicators, I see Kimu's transfer as more likely than Yumiko's. (Did I ever make that joke about Kimu moving to Tsukigumi to be Elisabeth? No? I think I only said it to Manda or Hanna. Obviously it's not happening, though; Kimu's already been announced for Zorro and Elisabeth is the next GT show immediately after it. On the same note, my secret [??] hope for Nacchan!Elisabeth has also been crushed.) Kimu could be somebody's new nibante, and Yukigumi could afford to lose her. Or maybe Kaname. I don't buy "But they have to keep Aqua5 together!"; it's not a convincing argument to me.

Speaking of Kaname? Her and Makkun on the cover of Graph? Suddenly started putting in my head the idea of Makkun being transferred. Where, I don't know.

I'm not as good at guessing as to the paths of younger stars, I just carry the firm belief that all troupes will be affected by the transfers.

And there will BE transfers, right, Hankyuu? You wouldn't keep all of us fangirls waiting for nothing.

*only a little excited about what news the 4th may bring*
 
 
Current Mood: contemplativestill thinking
 
 
 
Becca: Finch muffin_song on January 2nd, 2009 04:34 pm (UTC)
But 1994 has been skipped, and I see people from that class (i.e. Yumiko and Kiriyan) as being "next in line" -- or rather, they ought to be next in line.

I think you put into words what has been bothering me.

Unfortunately I worry that Yumiko and Yuuhi are going to be skipped over, period. Hankyu used to have Senka to get rid of everyone that they weren't going to eventually promote to top. I think we all can agree that getting rid of it was a good idea, but we might start seeing exceptions to the "all nibante eventually become tops" rule. Sorry to be depressing -_-;

For the record, I'm still predicting that Asako leaves tsukigumi after Elisabeth and Kiriyan takes over.

On the other hand, if we drew a parallel between "Kazu Ryouka appears unhappy and cold to her fans --> Kazu retires" and "Sena Jun appears unhappy and cold to her fans"...

To be fair, Asako may like her job and may just not like interacting with fans. (But then again she's also had some lackluster performances lately).

And there will BE transfers, right, Hankyuu? You wouldn't keep all of us fangirls waiting for nothing.

Two years ago they weren't until mid-January, so...
mooglechan: Ayana Oto - Hiromimooglechan on January 2nd, 2009 05:49 pm (UTC)
You're quite right about seniority. I personally think Kiriyan should have been made Top a long time ago because she seems to be by far the most deserving from the current candidates. But I still think she should be Moon's Top because she's had to wait for so long and it really seems like /her/ troupe now. I just dunno what's going on with Asako anymore.. ^^;;
Ms. Brittladybretagne on January 2nd, 2009 06:02 pm (UTC)
I definitely get what you mean about other people being in line ahead of Chie. But then, you could say that Kiriyan was in line ahead of Tani too, so I don't know. My big worry would be that, if they move someone else in to be top for a bit before Chie, what is that going to do to the dynamic of the troupe? In the wake of having a very popular combi retire (along with a whole group of other talented and up and coming people), would tossing in someone without any connection to the troupe do more harm than it was worth? Not that Hankyu necessarily listens to that sort of logic, of course. >.<

My personal bet is that there are going to be some shufflings with the 86ths-88ths (especially otokoyaku). The distribution among the troupes is kind of awkward right now, especially with the recent/upcoming retirements, and the 88ths are at the age now where it's just ripe for that to happen. *gnashes teeth*
quinquinquinquin on January 2nd, 2009 06:26 pm (UTC)
Personally I think seniority was screwed already when Chie was made nibante. But I'm sort of wondering if Kazu and Shun leaving may have changed the plans for the Company. It would be hard to make Chie top in Hoshigumi without adding at least a couple of high-ranking popular otokoyaku to the troupe.
Es ist Zeit zu Leben.: Kimu // on a wall.violet_tango on January 2nd, 2009 07:07 pm (UTC)
"Sena Jun appears unhappy and cold to her fans".

Doesn't she do that for the last two years already?

On the same note, my secret [??] hope for Nacchan!Elisabeth has also been crushed.

Oh, I think I will have that one very soon... only you would have to be okay with another death then, whose Ego is about three times of her height.

Kimu could be somebody's new nibante, and Yukigumi could afford to lose her. Or maybe Kaname.

I strongly protest! Especially against the latter!
(You know why ;))
That would test my being a nice loyal fan again.
kalen9 on January 2nd, 2009 08:17 pm (UTC)
And there will BE transfers, right, Hankyuu? You wouldn't keep all of us fangirls waiting for nothing.
I haven't wanted to say anything, but personally I find it completely hilarious that every other post on LJ is about transfers, and meanwhile Japanese fandom is dead quiet on the subject. ^_^;; Admittedly I mostly read Ahi cultist blogs these days and apparently they've declared a New Year's moratorium on worrying, but even on the message boards and other-cultist blogs I haven't seen much.

As far as who can be affected, Tsuki and Hoshi need bodies by spring. Yuki and Hana are already spoken for through the beginning of rehearsals for those troupes. So I'm beginning to think it's likely that Soragumi will be giving some people up, though who I'm not sure. (Lateral transfers of batchmates or similarly ranked girls also seems likely.)

All I really want is for Kimu to stay the hell away from Ahi. I don't care how. x_x
Amandasumire_no_hana on January 2nd, 2009 11:46 pm (UTC)
meanwhile Japanese fandom is dead quiet on the subject.
I know it's been mentioned several times in conversations and suppositions with my club while on iride standby.
I seen it kinda offhandedly mentioned a few times, as well, on one message board while curious about what roles Japanese fans were thinking the troupe will get for Elisabeth

As far as who can be affected, Tsuki and Hoshi need bodies by spring.
Hoshi is in greater need of bodies. Tsuki is in need of specific bodies (and a little breathing room in the middle ^^;)
Becca: Kimu casualmuffin_song on January 3rd, 2009 02:16 am (UTC)
All I really want is for Kimu to stay the hell away from Ahi. I don't care how. x_x

In that case can I take her?
kalen9 on January 3rd, 2009 03:00 am (UTC)
Kidnapping as a solution had not occurred to me, but sure, knock yourself out. I'll bring the dancing bears? ^_^;;