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29 October 2009 @ 11:24 pm
Tsukigumi speculation  
Um?

Why do we have the first few roles up for Yukigumi's next Grand Theater show... when they haven't announced any roles for Hoshigumi yet? We don't even have an *image* of what Solferino is going to look like. Why this random announcement?

To me it seems the only purpose it serves is, as Katharina said, to quell the rumors that Kimu is moving to Tsukigumi. I reeeeaaaaaally doubt they're going to pull a mid-run switch again, which takes Kimu out of the running for Kiriyan's nibante.

But before we start speculating on who's going to be the next Chauvelin, let's remember that Yukariko comes first. While Masaki is off doing Hamlet-with-two-exclamation-points, Kiriyan needs a nibante in Chunichi. A nibante who's going to be romantically involved with female Kiriyan.

This is, in my opinion, a big deal.

I think we were all pulling for Ahi at first, but she's retiring. In terms of "star power" I would guess the next in line is Morie... I mean, I can imagine her the best with Kiriyan... But who knows, right? At the very least, I've compared dates and what's already been announced and it really has to be someone in Tsukigumi. Again, it seems like the kind of role that should be a big deal.

And then what? Will they transfer someone in... or not? To me it would be the smart thing to do. For the sake of Pimpernel... and the sake of Masaki. It's not that I don't love her, because if you read my journal you should know that I do, immensely. But I really don't think she could pull off Chauvelin -- not yet, and not in half a year from now. It's too soon for her to be nibante at all -- again, like Katharina said about Kaname jumping from yonbante to nibante, she missed the kinds of roles and the kind of growth she might have gotten as sanbante. To me Masaki's Lucheni wasn't what it could've been, because she probably stressed herself out so much and worked her voice so hard that she never quite decided what direction she was taking with the character.

Sigh. Masaki, I worry about her, whatever's going to happen next year ;______; ♥

BUT ANYWAY. Let's not be depressing, let's speculate! ;D

Ironically a little over a week before the official announcement of Tsuki Pimpernel, I was discussing the "rumor" with Manda. Seeing Kiriyan live again in a role that's more interesting than her Franz Joseph made me re-think it and actually feel a little excited. (Unsurprisingly, my initial reaction to the rumor was "nooooooo Touko's show they can't have it". It was only a few months after all the Hoshigumi retirements, come on.)

But yeah. Kiriyan can definitely do Percy. Marimo can definitely do Marguerite. The only question is the rest of the cast.

Going over possible scenarios, this was the one I liked best.

Chauvelin (Chie) --> Kimu Micchan
Dewhurst (Shii) --> Morie
Andrew (Toyoko) --> Masaki
Ozzy (Haya) --> Sonoka
Armand (Kazu) --> Mirio
Mercier (Potto-san) --> Magee
Coupeau (Doi-chan) --> Toshi

That was as far as I got. The problem is once you've done a show once, people assume a standard of "this role equals this level on the star track". With Elisabeth, especially with Tsukigumi Elisabeth, they've messed with rankings in order to make it work. On the other hand, look at the difference between Hanagumi and Hoshigumi Taiou Shijinki. Sujini = sanbante otokoyaku --> underclassmen otokoyaku who's being surpassed by young upstarts. Hyeongo = semi star-tracked otokoyaku --> kumichou.

In the case of Pimpernel I think what they need to do is shift the importance of certain characters; give certain people more lines / singing parts / etc. And lend a good number of Senka members to poor Tsukigumi, a troupe whose number of upperclassmen is sadly dwindling.

So says the Julie-pyon. ;P

Now, let me hear speculation from everyone else~ ♥
 
 
Current Mood: curiouscurious
 
 
 
Beth Winter: todesglocken - Epialesbwinter on October 29th, 2009 03:05 pm (UTC)
Senka lending is a given, I think, in a troupe where the top star's older than the fuku-kumichou. Mirio!Armand would be adorable, and the general ensemble-ness of the show should give a boost to Tsukigumi, I hope.

I think who they transfer depends on what Yuuhi's plans are. If she's planning to retire within a show or two after Casablanca, Micchan will probably stay to become Tomu's sanbante. In that case, I could see a Flower transfer - Azusa, Miwacchi or Mitsuru, possibly. If Yuuhi's staying, Micchan is definitely in the running here, she's more than ready for sanbante.
Julie: alice micchan dancewao_wao on October 29th, 2009 03:17 pm (UTC)
At least when Kiriyan's top she'll be a year above kumichou. ^^;;;

Meo back in Tsukigumi? I guess I can almost see it, but... bleh. I like Morie better. (And Mitsuru seems like a really bad fit, but I'll admit that imagining her as Chauvelin makes me go ♥____♥) No, they shouldn't transfer an 85th in; it ought to be someone older.

(Micchan's already sanbante XDD;; But yes, totally ready for nibante!)

*refrains from commenting on the length of Yuuhi's stay*
Beth Winter: objects - tea ceremonybwinter on October 29th, 2009 03:46 pm (UTC)
Nibante is what I meant ^^; And yes, I like Morie better too. I think she could carry off Chauvelin with her voice, though in a different way from Chie.

(What, no rumours in the Sora circles? ;) I'm considering a trip in October 2010 and I'm eager to know if I'll be able to see top star!Tomu yet.)
kirakira_sora: Miles Sexykirakira_sora on October 29th, 2009 08:46 pm (UTC)
I'm glad to see someone else is of the same opinion as me for Chauvelin!Morie

*giggles*
Becca: Micchan and Masako from muffin_song on October 29th, 2009 03:18 pm (UTC)
Before I run out the door:

I don't think Chauvelin!Masaki would be the end of the world. I think she could pull it off at least adequately, but I'd worry about what she'd do to herself in the process :/

I'm starting to almost like this idea of Micchan!Chauvelin, but I need to wrap my mind around the possibility of her transferring, and back into tsuki at that...

(Who else did you consider a possibility for Chauvelin now that Kimu is apparently out?)

The League member roles seem pretty flexible, and they'll throw in whoever is star track at the time. If Masaki isn't Chauvelin, then maybe she'd get Armand? They're pushing her a little more than Mirio these days...
Julie: kazu thinkwao_wao on October 29th, 2009 03:36 pm (UTC)
Yeah. I don't want broken!Masaki being an "at least adequate" Chauvelin. I want Chauvelin amazingness.

But sure, who am I to say it would break her, or assume that it wouldn't be Chie levels of amazing. *shrug* I really am just being whiny and selfish and wanting Masaki to slow down on her rocketing and mature just a teensy bit more.

(Going out of order, she's not being pushed "a little more than Mirio". I think her role in LP vs. Mirio's, and Masaki's upcoming second lead in less than a year, makes it "a lot more". But I didn't want to push Masaki "down" to Armand.)

Micchan!Chauvelin, though ♥______♥ I'm not thinking past this at all, you realize. I'm just like "Pimpernel would be so good with her!!" and not contemplating the future. XDD;; Also, not contemplating other possibilities because my mind is stuck on her now ^^;;;
Proactively Untwist Octagonal Hippopotamus Pants: glittery dougdramaturgca on October 29th, 2009 05:23 pm (UTC)
Except for the fact that I am desperate not to break up the Sora 88ths, I can see Mii-chan both in Pimpernel and in Tsuki... Some day when my baby is a top (*dream*) I think she'd be amazing as Percy.
Katelynhappy_riceball on October 29th, 2009 06:57 pm (UTC)
Tsukigumi keeps breaking my brain. I can never predict what's going to happen. I am curious who'll be nibante though. Your speculations are food for the brain. Hmm~

michiru42: Sailor Neptunemichiru42 on October 29th, 2009 07:05 pm (UTC)
I'm so disappointed about Kimu! She would have been brilliant as Kiriyan's nibante, and she's so ready for the position.

The other real possibilities--IMHO, though obviously I'm prepared to be surprised, as I know how The Powers That Be tend to shock us--are Miwacchi and Micchan. They are, again, both ready and deserving of the position, so the question is, who would work best with Kiriyan?

As Tsukigumi is such a young troupe, it's possible that Masaki will get the nibante. Heck knows they've pushed her enough, she's got the popularity, and at eight years, she's technically old enough. However, as she wasn't on the calender with Kiriyan, I doubt it--though it could just mean the company was still deciding...

(And can Marimo do Margurite? I'm so glad to hear that! I know she can act, but I wasn't sure if she had the voice. I look forward to hearing her, then.)
kirakira_sora: Summer Makes sensekirakira_sora on October 29th, 2009 08:50 pm (UTC)
(And can Marimo do Margurite? I'm so glad to hear that! I know she can act, but I wasn't sure if she had the voice. I look forward to hearing her, then.)

A couple of us saw Marimo as Marguerite in the shinko last year and we liked what we saw. The role was in a very much raw state as expected of a shinko, but she has had more than a year to mature and refine herself (though I am always of the opinion young musumeyaku could always use more time).

In other words, she won't be Asuka (I doubt anyone can), but she will be her own amazing self.
ruderal_species: Pimpernel Touko-Asukaruderal_species on October 30th, 2009 01:22 am (UTC)
The problem is once you've done a show once, people assume a standard of "this role equals this level on the star track".

Her shinko version was definitely a bit "copying Asuka" but in a shinko that's not too surprising. She struggled a bit with the notes, but mostly won. I have faith that with the experience she's gained since then and a proper rehearsal schedule (I'm assuming they'll get the special vocal coaching that Touko and Asuka did), she will pull it off splendidly. <3
Es ist Zeit zu Leben.: Touko & Asuka // Scarlet Pimpernelviolet_tango on October 29th, 2009 09:29 pm (UTC)
I'd go with 'Expect the unexpected'. Who would have thought one year ago that Kaname would be hoshigumi's nibante now?

I want to throw Mattsu in. Don't ask me why I just want. Because it's Mattsu. <3
And who knows, Tomocchin maybe?
I know in both cases the chances are rather low, but really, who is left now? Toyoko?
(I believe in anything after Sou became Hanagumi's nibante. <3)

I am so curious what's going to happen.
ruderal_species: Mura Rakuruderal_species on October 30th, 2009 01:23 am (UTC)
but really, who is left now? Toyoko?

*brain breaks*

Toyoko!Chauvelin... THAT I want to see.

...But not enough to let anyone else have our Toyoko. ;)
arlecchinic on October 29th, 2009 10:38 pm (UTC)
A nibante who's going to be romantically involved with female Kiriyan.

Aw. I wasn't really engaging with the story, and thought it was the nibante who was pretending to be a boy and had secret unrealistic hopes they'd give it to Marimo. Aw.
jess_in_japan: Michael4jess_in_japan on October 29th, 2009 11:11 pm (UTC)
I am like 20 times more excited for Yukariko now that I'm considering the prospect of nibante!Morie. And this is the 1 show all year that is super convenient for me to see!
ruderal_species: To Do Listruderal_species on October 30th, 2009 01:19 am (UTC)
As someone who now knows practically nothing about current Moon Troupe, I am vastly unqualified to speculate. All I know is they can't have anyone in Hoshigumi, because we NEED all our star-track people, we've so few left. ;)

I wouldn't be surprised if they did some sort of "special guest" thing. Remember what just happened with Elisabeth. :/

I love the random roles you chose to fill and the way you put the Hoshigumi names in there too. ;)

I think it's interesting you put star-classy people in the Andrew/Dewhurst roles because I consider them both less interesting than Armand. I kind of felt like Shii/Toyoko having them was pretty clearly a "You're not really star track" message. So my guess would be that those wouldn't go to Masaki/Morie, but that one of them would get Armand, which is more interesting and plot essential. Unless, like you said, they give the roles more lines/scenes/stuff to do.

The league can be rounded out by non-star track folks, of course, ala Haya and Shiiran...

I'm excited about Marimo Marguerite, though still perhaps a tiny little edge of worry about the singing, which is very difficult. But with a lot more time to rehearse, I think she can give it her own style.

The problem is once you've done a show once, people assume a standard of "this role equals this level on the star track".

A very good point. I'd really prefer that they look more at who's good for a role, but then we also end up with seemingly random things like "a young otokoyaku from some other troupe as Elisabeth" and everyone gets up in arms. Hankyu really can't win. ;)
Julie: kazu thinkwao_wao on October 30th, 2009 02:17 am (UTC)
All I know is they can't have anyone in Hoshigumi

The less transfers, the better. *fervent nod*

I wouldn't be surprised if they did some sort of "special guest" thing.

This would annoy me. Just as Elisabeth didn't solve the problem of "no top musumeyaku in Tsukigumi", a guest role would not solve the problem of Tsukigumi needing a proper nibante.

I think it's interesting you put star-classy people in the Andrew/Dewhurst roles

For some reason I see Armand as "not good enough" for Masaki. But maybe that is the answer -- Masaki!Armand as a "star" role, and then they could put all the 微妙 people as League members.

but then we also end up with seemingly random things like "a young otokoyaku from some other troupe as Elisabeth"

Please don't tell me you actually agree with Koike @#$%! Shuuichirou in claiming that no one in Tsukigumi was good enough for Elisabeth. Augh. I will never forgive him. D:
Jen: The Sword of the Habsburgscaithion on October 30th, 2009 04:03 am (UTC)
Please don't tell me you actually agree with Koike @#$%! Shuuichirou in claiming that no one in Tsukigumi was good enough for Elisabeth.

I don't think it was no one is good enough so much as, this person was the best fit. *shrugs*

And, because I'm too lazy to start another comment, I've had the amusing impression that Yuki roles are out because Ueda has had all year to work on this one script, and I bet it's finished. I bet Hoshigumi's is only fleshed out and they still haven't even decided if they're going to make Kaname Franz Stephan or Friedrich. ;)
jess_in_japan: aranjess_in_japan on October 30th, 2009 04:48 am (UTC)
Oh, that darn Keiko-sensei is at it again ;)

And I agree-- I just assumed the hoshi script wasn't done far enough, heh.
ruderal_species: Touko Close-Upruderal_species on October 30th, 2009 07:42 am (UTC)
a guest role would not solve the problem of Tsukigumi needing a proper nibante.

I guess I wasn't quite clear to what degree the various grumblings are about "Masaki shouldn't be Chauvelin" and to what degree they're "Masaki shouldn't be nibante". I see them as two different things, as few nibante roles are as demanding as Chauvelin. (As I'm not sure I could pick on-stage Masaki out of a lineup, I'm deliberately not giving an opinion one way or the other.)

For some reason I see Armand as "not good enough" for Masaki.

It's got WAY more plot significance than Anthony or Dewhurst... :/

Please don't tell me you actually agree with Koike @#$%! Shuuichirou in claiming that no one in Tsukigumi was good enough for Elisabeth.

No, I thought it was a silly thing to do, though again I can't really comment since I don't really know any Tsuki musumeyaku and I haven't seen the new Elisabeth. I was just trying to say that it's sort of the epitome of casting to the director's ideal instead of by troupe seniority, and look how well everyone took THAT. ;)